ERASL models
Resection is the most widely used potentially curative treatment for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma but recurrence within 2 years occurs in 30–50% of patients, being the major cause of mortality. The ERASL models (based on over 3,900 patients) permit estimation risk of early recurrence before and after resection.
The ‘preoperative model’ (ERASL-pre) gives 3 risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS):
Low risk: 2-year RFS 64.8%,
Intermediate risk: 2-year RFS 42.5% and
High risk: 2-year RFS 20.7%.
Strata are enhanced in the post-operative model (ERASL-post) which includes ‘microvascular invasion’ a variable only available after histological assessment of the resected lesion.
The original publication: Chan AWH et al. Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection. Journal of Hepatology 2018; vol. 69: 1284–1293.