PROSASH
This model permits prediction of survival in patients with advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma receiving Sorafenib.
Sorafenib has been the standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) and has been shown to improve survival by about 3 months compared to placebo. However, survival varies widely from under three months to over two years. This model is based on 1130 patients undergoing sorafenib treatment for aHCC as part of the control arm from two phase III randomised clinical trials (RCTs). A multivariable model was built that predicts survival based on baseline clinical features. The statistical approach of Flexible Parametric Modelling permits both group-level risk stratification and individual-level survival prediction at any given time point. The variables influencing overall survival were vascular invasion, age, ECOG score, AFP, albumin, creatinine, AST, extrahepatic spread and aetiology. The model-predicted survival is very similar to that observed.
Note 1. The model has been externally validated in routine clinical practice. Labeur T et al., Liver International. 2020;40:215–228.